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２０１９年５月４日 北朝鮮体制崩壊優先か，米ロ電話会談，中国を巻き込む軍縮

北朝鮮の核問題について，米国は大きな方向転換を目指し始めたのではないか，金正恩委員長が，核放棄を行う意思のないこと，体制を維持すること，これらが明確になってきて，従来まで言われてきた，「斬首作戦」，に近い手法，場合によっては，北の民衆の蜂起を促す作戦ともとれる，

今日の日経が取り上げたロバート・マニング氏の，「北朝鮮にリスク，進まない核放棄」，においては，トランプ大統領が持ちかけた北の経済開発は，そのポテンシャルを見ると，正解だろうとしている，しかし，どうも金正恩は，経済開放が政権の内部崩壊を恐れて，体制と核の維持を続ける，

トランプ政権は何か成算があるのか，雑誌選択の語る方向は，まさしく，北朝鮮の民衆の蜂起を促す，これまた先制攻撃に勝る危険な方向に走っている，暗殺された金正男の長男ハンソルは，米政府に保護されながら，「自由北朝鮮」，の旗を掲げて，世界に散らばる同朋に呼びかけている，

昨日４月３日，トランプ大統領はロシアのプーチン大統領と１時間に亘って電話会談を行った，北朝鮮問題が話し合われたが，平行線だったようだ，ただ，大きな問題はＩＮＦを含めた核軍縮問題で，トランプ大統領は，中国を巻き込んだ新しい核戦略協議を提案し，プーチンは静かに聴いた

トランプの語った内容は，ロイター電によると，中国が米ロの核軍縮の枠組みへの参加に意欲を示しているとし，「近い将来，米ロでの枠組みを始め，いずれ中国が参加するだろう，核不拡散など包括的な協定について協議することになる，と述べたと言う，いずれにしても問題は中国だ，

事の発端は，トランプ大統領のロシアに対するＩＮＦ制限条約の離脱であり，制限条約に入っていない中国が，中短距離ミサイル２０００発以上で，極東への米軍接近拒否の作戦を，無制限に進めていることに対する，トランプ政権の懸念に発する，中国は大陸間弾道弾は余り関心がない，

中国は，米国との間に，大陸間弾道弾の数で桁違いに小さいが，今日のロイターが報ずる特別レポートでは，「中国が高める核報復力，南シナ海に潜む戦略原潜」，と題して，衛星から見た海南島の海軍基地の動きを，詳細に報じている，米国をにらんだ核抑止力の整備が着々と進んでいる

大陸間弾道弾の数で争うよりも，ＳＬＢＭ，潜水艦で姿をくらました核報復能力が有利，と見ているわけだが，この潜水艦の行動は，ある一定の海水の深度が必要であり，南シナ海は，そう言う意味で，中国海軍にとっては核心とも言える海域で，自由航行の米海軍の作戦に神経をとがらす，

一帯一路の国際会議が終わったところだが，米国内では，一帯一路を中国が軍事基地の世界的配置に使うのではないかと懸念する報道もある，今はジブチ基地だけだが，いずれ拡大は目に見える，このような情勢の中，安倍首相が金正恩との直接会談を意図している，詳細な検討が必要だ

参考資料 ２０１９年５月４日９時４２分

極東情勢

◆190504 特別リポート：中国が高める核報復力、南シナ海に潜む戦略原潜
ロイター-1 hour ago https://bit.ly/2JgNY3x
特別リポート：中国が高める核報復力、南シナ海に潜む戦略原潜 ... ［２日 ロイター］ - 南シナ海に浮かぶ中国の海南島。 ... しかし、国家主席、習近平が率いる「強軍戦略」の下、中国は主要核保有国のなかで唯一、核弾頭を増やし、空中発射型弾道ミサイルの ...

◆190504 北朝鮮にリスク 進まない核放棄 ロバート・マニング氏
日本経済新聞-3 hours ago https://s.nikkei.com/2ZUABw0
北朝鮮の金正恩（キム・ジョンウン）委員長が核を放棄する、魔法のインセンティブ（誘因）は何だろうか。いままでの米朝首脳会談などで答えは得られていないし、今後も可能性は低い。 トランプ米大統領と韓国の文在寅（ムン・ジェイン）大統領は、様々な経済的 ...

◆190504 中国交えた新核軍縮を協議＝対北朝鮮は平行線－米ロ首脳
時事通信-1 hour ago https://bit.ly/2H0GIaH
【ワシントン、モスクワ時事】トランプ米大統領は３日、ロシアのプーチン大統領と電話会談した。サンダース米大統領報道官によると、会談は１時間以上行われ、２０２１年に期限が切れる米ロの新戦略兵器削減条約（新ＳＴＡＲＴ）の延長や中国も交えた多国間の新 ...

◆190504 中国、「一帯一路」で世界中に軍事基地建設へ 米国防総省報告書
AFPBB News-20 hours ago https://bit.ly/2VaqqEK
【5月3日 AFP】米国防総省は2日、議会に提出した年次報告書の中で、中国が大経済圏構想「一帯一路（One Belt One ... 習近平（Xi Jinping）国家主席は、東アジアと東南アジアにとどまらない中国の影響力拡大を狙っており、国際機関や先進技術分野での ...

◆190504 米ロ首脳、中国含む核軍縮協定の可能性や北朝鮮問題など協議
ロイター-3 hours ago https://bit.ly/2VgkQ3C
ワシントン ３日 ロイター］ - トランプ米大統領は３日、ロシアのプーチン大統領と電話会談を行い、米ロに加え中国が参加する新たな核軍縮協定の可能性や、北朝鮮の非核化に向けた取り組み、ベネズエラ情勢などについて１時間以上にわたり協議した。

◆190503 首相、対北朝鮮で方針転換 首脳会談へ前提条件つけず
朝日新聞-11 hours ago https://bit.ly/2Y0uR1N
安倍晋三首相は北朝鮮の金正恩（キムジョンウン）・朝鮮労働党委員長との日朝首脳会談について、前提条件をつけずに実現に ... 氏は米国、中国、ロシア、韓国の首脳と相次いで会談。６者協議の枠組みで唯一、会談をしていない日本としては、北朝鮮と対話を ...

エネルギー一般

◆190504 もう1つの米中覇権争い エネルギー地政学、軸は技術
日本経済新聞-7 hours ago https://s.nikkei.com/2J0Ltmw
米国と中国の摩擦は根の深さが見えてきた。これをエネルギーの視点で見れば、世界最大の生産国である米国と、世界最大の消費国である中国の攻防と捉えることができる。 急増する石油・天然ガスの生産量をてこに、「エネルギー支配」に動く米国に対し、 ...

◆190504 イラン原油禁輸に苦慮 トルコ反発、インド保留
日本経済新聞-19 hours ago https://s.nikkei.com/2DLEZDO
【ニューデリー=黒沼勇史】米国によるイラン産原油の輸入禁止制裁で、2日に適用凍結を解除された国々が対応に苦慮している。同日にはトルコのチャブシオール外相が記者会見で「短期間で原油の輸入先を変えるのは不可能だ」と述べ、イラン産の輸入を続ける ...

◆190503 トランプ政権、イラン産原油を全面禁輸 価格高騰の恐れ
朝日新聞-12 hours ago https://bit.ly/2V9mu72
トランプ米政権は２日、イラン産原油の禁輸制裁から日本など８カ国・地域に認めた適用除外の措置を打ち切った。輸入を続ければ米国の制裁の対象になる。イランは核開発の再開も示唆しており、中東地域の不安定化や世界の原油価格の高騰が懸念されて ...

中国のエネルギー，２０１９年５月３日１６時３２分

◆190503 Will China Be Able To Meet Its Lofty Nuclear Power Goals?
果たして中国は，高い質の原発方式にと立つ出来るだろうか
OilPrice.com-12 hours ago https://bit.ly/2DMFXzJ
... of growth in the world thanks to its booming hydro, wind, solar and nuclear sectors. After a late entrance to the nuclear power game in the 1990s, China has ... Nuclear energy officials in Japan, South Korea, France and the United States fear ... In fact, according to a forecast released by the China Electricity Council just this ...

◆190503 Special Report: China's furtive underwater nukes test the Pentagon
Reuters-19 hours ago https://reut.rs/2GXphqi
An effective fleet of nuclear ballistic missile submarines, known as SSBNs, marks a ... China's nuclear submarine fleet, Western strategists say, has added to the ... As it strengthens and improves its nuclear arsenal, Beijing is the only major nuclear power to be .... How Russia contaminated $2.7 billion of oil exports to Europe.

◆190503 China's gas output keeps rising but 2020 target still in doubt
Interfax Global Energy-19 hours ago https://bit.ly/2vC0hQ4
China's gas output increased by 9.9% year on year in Q1 2019, to 44.1 billion cubic metres, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) ...

◆190503 India-China Oil Bloc Proposal a Good Step, Say Energy Analysts
Sputnik International-16 minutes ago https://bit.ly/2DNdmu8
While China is currently the largest purchaser of Iranian crude oil, both India and ... work towards forming oil buyers' bloc, Delhi-based energy analyst Narendra ... both countries have significant purchasing power in the global energy sector. ... a 2015 international pact with Tehran designed to curb its nuclear programme.

◆190503 Pentagon: Chinese carrier likely to join naval fleet in 2019
Asahi Shimbun-6 hours ago https://bit.ly/2ZUHltN
WASHINGTON--China's first domestically built aircraft carrier is likely to enter into service this ... said Thursday in an updated assessment of Chinese military power. ... State media reports say China is also planning to build a nuclear-powered ...

◆190503 Pentagon says China's military using espionage to steal secrets
CNN-10 hours ago https://cnn.it/2VGmNpu
(CNN) China is continuing to modernize its armed forces in order to transform ... a major global power and using espionage to steal cutting edge technology for military ... "China uses a variety of methods to acquire foreign military and dual-use ... some 78 percent of its oil imports and 16 percent of natural gas imports sails.

◆190502 Serious flooding likely to hit Yangtze River
長江の中流域，激しい洪水に襲われている
Xinhua-9 hours ago https://bit.ly/2J4Sz90
WUHAN, May 1 (Xinhua) -- The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River is likely to see relatively serious flooding while its upstream might see drought to ...

東南アジア主要国のエネルギー

◆190503 Oil & Gas JV Begins Long-Term Production from Four Thailand Wells
Streetwise Reports-14 hours ago https://bit.ly/2vzeu01
Pan Orient Energy Corp. (POE:TSX.V) announced in a news release that the Thailand government granted it and its joint venture partner a 20-year production ...

◆190503 Indonesia's Pertamina, Freepoint Commodities sign HoA for fuel terminal
Reuters Africa-2 hours ago https://bit.ly/2vJUloh
Indonesia's Pertamina, Freepoint Commodities sign HoA for fuel terminal ... Indonesia's state energy company PT Pertamina signed a head of agreement ... The partnership deal will involve Pertamina supplying oil products to the terminal and ...

◆190503 King Vajiralongkorn of Thailand marries his security chief Suthida ...
CBS News-22 hours ago https://cbsn.ws/2IXtCge
Bangkok -- Thailand's King Maha Vajiralongkorn has appointed his consort as the ... and in return was bestowed traditional gifts associated with royal power.

◆190503 Indonesia 2019 biodiesel exports to rise
The Star Online-8 hours ago https://bit.ly/2ZSlvHb
Indonesia resumed exports of biodiesel to Europe early last year, after the ... Consumption of the palm oil-based fuel jumped after Indonesian government made the use of B20 fuel mandatory. ... although an energy ministry official has said the implementation schedule ... Tags / Keywords: Palm Oil , Oil & Gas , Plantations.

◆190502 Indonesia bribery cases weigh on Jokowi's reform plans
インドネシアの汚職問題，ジョコ大統領の改革プランに大きな影響
Nikkei Asian Review-5 hours ago https://s.nikkei.com/2ZP67vg
Indonesia bribery cases weigh on Jokowi's reform plans ... to award a contract to build a 600 megawatt coal-fired power plant in Riau Province to a ... PLN is central to Widodo's 35 GW electricity procurement program, part of his signature ... the energy ministry in 2017 issued a regulation that allowed PLN to directly appoint ...

メコン諸国のエネルギー

◆190503 Giving a dam about the Mekong
The ASEAN Post-37 minutes ago https://bit.ly/2Vd2ws3
... Myanmar, Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam, the Mekong and its tributaries ... The longest river in Southeast Asia is home to the world's largest inland fishery. ... In 2006, energy needs magnified by the financial returns of hydropower ... A Mekong River Council study discussed at the Mekong River Commission ...

◆190503 Japan, Vietnam to seek peaceful solution of S. China Sea dispute
The Mainichi-10 hours ago https://bit.ly/2VFFaek
Japan, Vietnam to seek peaceful solution of S. China Sea dispute ... "Japan hopes to further deepen ties with Vietnam in the era of Reiwa," Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya ... the entire body of water, a vital shipping lane with rich fishing grounds and possibly large oil and natural gas deposits. ... Fukushima & Nuclear Power.

◆190503 Italy, Myanmar sign 30 mn euro electrification agreement
ETEnergyworld.com-4 hours ago https://bit.ly/2WognZo
Italy, Myanmar sign 30 mn euro electrification agreement ... of a World Bank-funded national electrification programme that will bring power to half a ... Some 100,000 households will get electricity under the accord focused mainly on .... to replace Iran oil grades as waivers end / India's natural gas production grew for second ...

２０１９年５月２日２０時２７分

◆190502 Thailand pushes China's Belt and Road despite differing visions
タイ政府，構想に違いはあるが，中国の一帯一路に合意
Nikkei Asian Review-7 hours ago https://s.nikkei.com/2J97gIc
... the forum of a Memorandum of Cooperation between Thailand, Laos and China, ... that prevent the passage of mid-sized commercial ships along the Mekong River. ... in their plan, or carry out the infrastructure investment in electricity or water." ... further west, focusing increasingly on Myanmar and developing BRI projects ...

南アジアのエネルギー

◆190503 India Asked US If It Can Keep Purchasing Iranian Crude Oil Despite ...
OilPrice.com-16 hours ago https://bit.ly/2WqN8VS
India has asked the United States if it would be flexible in allowing India to continue importing Iranian crude oil despite the end of the sanction waivers on May 1, ...

◆190503 India eyes Guyana as Iran oil supplies end
Livemint-12 hours ago https://bit.ly/2GZreU2
The world's third-largest oil importer is looking to secure an interest in ... A six-month sanctions waiver for India and seven other countries to continue importing oil from ... publicly-traded energy firms, announced an estimated reserve of more than ... energy stakes in 28 countries, including Australia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, ...

◆190503 PM launches 800-MW Mohmand Dam project in Pakistan
HydroWorld-15 hours ago https://bit.ly/2WqOksk
... launched the 800-MW Mohmand Dam project, to be built on the Swat River. The dam is being built in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province to provide flood ... The Water & Power Development Authority (WAPDA) says the facility will be ... to the Supreme Court of Pakistan Diamer Basha and Mohmand Dam Fund at the State ...

◆190503 Coal India plans 530 MT coal to power sector in FY'20
Moneycontrol.com-18 hours ago https://bit.ly/2PJc888
Coal India will supply 530 million tonne of coal to the power sector in ... Retaining the focus on power sector, CIL's share of despatch to power sector has ...

◆190503 India-Pakistan war would be 'nuclear Armageddon'
Anadolu Agency-14 hours ago https://bit.ly/2DJvq8I
ISTANBUL. A war between Pakistan and India would be “nuclear Armageddon” and the whole world would be affected, the head of Azad Jammu and Kashmir ...

◆190503 Oracle Power says Pakistan MOU was inked in ceremonial signing
Proactive Investors UK-22 minutes ago https://bit.ly/2JbPHal
In March, Oracle informed investors of a change to the memorandum of understanding concerning the group's power plant development project in the Sindh ...

◆190503 CLP may buy Morgan Stanley's wind assets
Livemint-13 hours ago https://bit.ly/2J9ozsF
MUMBAI: CLP India, one of the largest foreign investors in India's power ... “CLP India has been engaged in talks with Morgan Stanley and is looking to ... CLP entered India in 2002 by acquiring a stake in the 655MW gas-powered ... of renewable energy projects and a 1,320MW coal fired power plant in Jhajjar, Haryana.

◆190502 Is Inclusion of Large Hydro Power in India's Renewable Mix a Good ...
インドでは，大規模水力を再生可能エネルギーと見なしている
Mercom India-7 hours ago https://bit.ly/2LhYGcU
Large hydro power (LHP) projects are back in the limelight in India, thanks to the ... power in the world, has a goal of installing 175 GW of renewable energy by 2022. ... Electricity Authority, requesting a comment on how the new energy mix will ... in Share of Renewables in India to 36% by 2021-2022, Coal to Shrink to 26%.

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